Elections in the autonomous region of Gagauzia
Location(s): Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova
Date of event: May 14, 2023
What happened: Pro-Russian politician Yevgenia Guțul won a controversial election for the Governor position of the Gagauz Autonomous Territorial Unit in Moldova and faced accusations of voter fraud by Chisinau. The Governor of Gagauz is a member of the Cabinet of Moldova. Tensions between the Moldovan government and Gagauzian regional authorities incited protests in Gagauzia and could weaken Moldovan institutions, social cohesion and national security, and could have implications for Western-funded international organizations operating Moldova.
Event Details
Yevgenia Guțul from the pro-Russian Ilan Shor party won the runoff elections for the Governor (Bashkan) position in Gagauzia on May 14. The Bashkan is elected for 4 years and coordinates all state affairs in the Gagauz Autonomous Territorial Unit in Moldova. The Governor of Gagauz is a member of the Cabinet of Moldova. In her electoral campaign, Guțul went as far as to promise the opening of a diplomatic representation of the autonomous region of Gagauzia in Moscow. These events elicited a sharp response from the Moldovan government. In reaction to Gutul’s announcements, Moldova’s Prime Minister in turn announced that law enforcement will investigate whether her pro-Russian statements qualify as separatism – officially outlawed in Moldova as of February 2023. In as made clear in statements, the Moldovan President and the Prime Minister are convinced that the election campaign in Gagauzia was neither free nor fair, and was rather manipulated by pro-Russian elements.
A strong response was initiated by Moldovan law enforcement, who entered the building of the Gagauz Central Electoral Commission and interrupted the final selection procedure, confiscating voter lists and protocols on the suspicion of bribery and vote-buying. Subsequently, mass pro-Gutul protests against the actions of law enforcement emerged in the region on May 17. Right afer the elections the Moldovan Central Electoral Commission initiated 8 criminal proceedings accusing the winning party of receiving illegal financing by foreign actors to fund their electoral campaign. However, local support for Guțul remains strong, and the Central Electoral Commission of Gagauzia recognized the election results as valid. The Gagauzian regional parliament supported Guțul’s appointment as a new regional Governor.
Impact and Analysis
The Bashkan elections in Gagauzia demonstrate that the autonomous region remains a stronghold for pro-Russian sentiments in Moldova. Already the first round of the election resulted in more than 90% of the votes given to candidates that can be either considered as openly pro-Russian or who have close business and/or political networks to Russia. Perhaps illustrating this, in addition to a lack of alternative opposition voices, both candidates in the 2nd round, Guțul and Grigorii Uzun, represent parties close to Moscow, and were campaigning on anti-Western and anti-Chisinau sentiments ubiquitous in the region.
Of note, the winning party was founded and is controlled by the Moldovan-Israeli oligarch Ilan Shor. He is charged with the theft of a billion Euro from Moldovan banks. Since Russia’s assault on Ukraine Ilan Shor’s party incited regular rallies against the Moldovan government and its European integration path. The next Sor-orchestrated anti-government demonstrations are planned for May 21 – as counter-events to a pro-European day launched by President Maia Sandu – the European Moldova National Assembly.
The tit for tat as a result of Gutal's electoral statements appear to be escalating, resulting in protests and arrests. The situation is expected to remain tense throughout 2023, with some possibility of a preliminary peak in June, around the second meeting of the European Political Community, when Chisinau will be hosting 47 heads of states. Should no de-escalation take place in the coming days, protests in Gagauzia as well as Shor-funded protests across Moldova might be used to unnerve Western support for Chisinau.
The election results may have impact on the Moldovan government’s engagement with international Western partners, yet more significant will be the domestic consequences. The predominantly pro-Russian population, facing harsh economic consequences of the war in Ukraine – exacerbating historical tensions with the central authorities – continue to provide Russia with a source of leverage in a strategic country located on Ukraine’s Western border. If pressure against Gutal continues, Gagauzians might rally around their regional candidate for identity reasons – regardless of whether they have actually voted for her or not. This could increase social conflict in Moldova, with the potential of escalating into violence, as well as curbing Moldovan rapprochement with the European Union and NATO.
The anti-western rhetoric by Gagauz authorities might fuel smear campaigns against Western international organizations that are trying to foster social cohesion in the country or providing humanitarian support for Ukrainians in Moldova. This will most likely be seen in Gagauz itself – and could be reflected in local bureaucratic access constraints and blockages, as well as heightened interference in programming activities. Programming more associated with Western-affiliated NGOs, or none-basic needs implementations such as social cohesion and peacebuilding work, will more likely be affected.