Widespread attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have negatively affected every part of the economy. This is particularly true for the country’s SMEs. This flash report provides a snapshot of how SME’s are coping with extended power outages, higher costs and eroded business confidence.

In February 2026, Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year amid intensified military pressure, inconclusive diplomatic engagement, and a severe energy crisis affecting millions. This scenario report sets out four plausible six-month scenarios based on varying interactions between military pressure and state capacity.