Ukraine Scenario Report: January–June 2026

January 29, 2026

Scenario Report

Overview

In February 2026, Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year amid intensified military pressure, inconclusive diplomatic engagement, and a severe energy crisis affecting millions. Heightened infrastructure attacks have caused widespread heating and power disruptions across major cities during sub-zero temperatures, straining state capacity to maintain essential services.

This report, developed by the Ukraine Crisis Analysis Team, sets out four plausible six-month scenarios based on varying interactions between military pressure and state capacity. They explore how different trajectories could shape humanitarian needs and response priorities. They are analytical tools, not predictions.