Flash Report: Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections and the Impact on Ukraine

September 22, 2025

Flash Report

Hand putting a ballot into ballot box with a Moldovan flag in the background.

Overview

On September 28, Moldovan voters head to the polls for parliamentary elections. The stakes are high – an outright victory by the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity will enable Moldova to continue along its path to EU integration. Any other result has the potential to shift Moldova back towards the Russian sphere of influence. With a high share of undecided voters and widespread doubts about electoral integrity, the outcome is far from certain.

For Ukraine, an opposition victory could undermine trade flows including the Danube corridor, reduce energy cooperation, and politicize assistance for over 135,000 Ukrainian refugees in Moldova. It would also strengthen Russia’s leverage in Transnistria, amplify disinformation across the region, and limit Western flexibility in supporting Ukraine. This flash report examines the key risks, highlighting why Moldova’s elections matter for Ukraine’s economy, security, and resilience.