Flash Report: Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, Russia
Executive Summary
Ukrainian forces appear to be advancing further into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. On August 15, the Ukrainian military announced that 82 settlements and approximately 1,150 square km were now under its control.1 The incursion is a form of asymmetric warfare aimed at securing its border by pushing back Russian artillery, disrupting enemy supply lines, and bringing the conflict onto Russian territory to trigger significant social consequences.
As of August 14, reports from both Ukrainian and Russian military units, as well as military bloggers, indicate that Russia is gradually redeploying some battalions from the Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which Russia considers to be secondary fronts. However, there is little evidence of a significant shift in Russian forces away from their main focus in Donetsk Oblast.
The humanitarian situation calls for a significant scale-up in response efforts. Key priorities include increasing the presence of humanitarian actors at the Mokrany–Domanove border crossing on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in Volyn Oblast, assisting with evacuations, and supporting healthcare institutions in Sumy Oblast. Additionally, there is a need to facilitate humanitarian access to the 20-km zone near the international border in Sumy Oblast, expand damage assessments, and provide construction materials. Humanitarian actors will also need to extend their operations into Kursk Oblast, as Ukraine works to provide access.