Flash Report: Troop build up along Belarus’ Gomel region bordering northern Ukraine
Executive Summary
On August 18, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus would deploy approximately 20,000 troops, or roughly a third of its army, near the Ukrainian border. He stated that this was in response to the buildup of Ukrainian troops. Belarus has been closely aligned with Russia throughout the current full-scale war, serving as a staging point for Russian military incursions into Ukraine’s north towards Kyiv until Russian forces retreated from the area in April 2022. The country is home to a contingent of former Wagner fighters, many of whom relocated there in the aftermath of the failed June 2023 rebellion.
This begs the question – what is the point of the current military exercises? Most likely, the idea is to draw already overstretched Ukrainian forces from other parts of the battlefield. This is a tactic that Lukashenko and Putin would likely agree on. Even if the Ukrainian leadership does not fully believe that Belarus will mount a full incursion, they are obliged to allocate resources to strengthen that border, something they are indeed already doing. Moreover, a worst-case scenario for Ukraine could involve small incursions of limited numbers of Wagner forces perhaps augmented by Belarusian soldiers, into largely depopulated border villages. While this scenario would not likely put northern Ukraine at risk, it would clearly necessitate the redeployment of a small number of Ukrainian forces. Moreover, it would probably lead to limited displacement, though likely not more than several hundred individuals.
Ultimately, if Russia wants to re-engage the northern front, it would have to contribute the bulk of personnel and equipment to this effort. It could not rely on Belarus. There are currently no signs Russia intends to divert forces to this area, and doing so would be at odds with its current southeast-focused strategy. Any diversions from that strategy would more likely be part of Russia’s response to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, rather than a reopening of the northern front. That said, given the proximity of the millions of residents of both Chernihiv city and Kyiv to the current area of troop buildup, the situation warrants monitoring.