Over the last five weeks, Russian forces have launched six attacks on cargo vessels moored in Odesa-area ports and in the Black Sea, resulting in numerous casualties. The attacks have already caused war insurance premiums to rise for vessels transporting grain and other goods from Ukraine. Should the Russian authorities continue this tactic, the implications for the Ukrainian economy, particularly the agriculture sector, could be significant, increasing Ukraine’s dependence on more expensive and potentially politically contentious trade routes overland and via Danube ports.

On August 18, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus would deploy approximately 20,000 troops, or roughly a third of its army, near the Ukrainian border. He stated that this was in response to the buildup of Ukrainian troops. Even if the Ukrainian leadership does not fully believe that Belarus will mount a full incursion, they are obliged to allocate resources to strengthen that border, something they are indeed already doing.

To maintain operational relevance and support preparedness efforts, UACAT conducts a biannual review of these scenarios. This report starts by looking at the political, economic, and regional and international factors that will inform developments in the coming months, starting with the political situation.

"Looking ahead: What changes can aid actors expect in Poland’s humanitarian situation over the next six months? - UACAT Scenario Report

"Looking ahead: How will regional, economic, and political dynamics affect Ukraine's front line and the humanitarian situation over the next six months?" - UACAT Scenario Report

This monthly report covers crucial events in Ukraine as well as its neighbors, Poland and Moldova. Topics include: security and access, the diplomatic landscape, economics and development.

This monthly report covers crucial events in Ukraine as well as three of its neighbors, Poland, Moldova, and Slovakia. Topics include: security and access, the diplomatic landscape, economics and development.

This monthly report covers crucial events in Ukraine as well as two of its neighbors, Poland and Moldova. Topics include: security and access, the political landscape, legal issues, economics and development.

This monthly report covers crucial events in Ukraine as well as two of its neighbors, Poland and Moldova. Topics include: security and access, the political landscape, legal issues, economics and development.

This monthly report covers crucial events in Ukraine as well as two of its neighbors, Poland and Moldova. Topics include: security and access, the political landscape, legal issues, economics and development.