Ukraine Scenario Report: August–December 2025

July 29, 2025

Scenario Report

Overview

At the start of 2025, Ukraine’s SMEs face challenges due to the ongoing energy crisis caused by wartime damage to power infrastructure. This report analyzes how energy insecurity has disrupted SME operations across many sectors, forcing them to adopt coping strategies such as investing in generators and trimming operational expenses.

Many struggle with reduced profits, strained cash flow, and shifts in consumer behavior, while systemic issues such as bureaucracy and financing barriers hinder long-term energy self-sufficiency.

Drawing on UACAT’s ongoing research, this report outlines key needs of SMEs and offers actionable recommendations for international actors to help Ukrainian businesses build energy resilience and maintain stability.