In February 2026, Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year amid intensified military pressure, inconclusive diplomatic engagement, and a severe energy crisis affecting millions. This scenario report sets out four plausible six-month scenarios based on varying interactions between military pressure and state capacity.

In the fourth year of the war, Ukraine faces a drastically different political environment. This report outlines three scenarios for the final six months of 2025. For each scenario, this report will assess possible military developments and their subsequent humanitarian impacts. It will also examine the broader economic, social, and political consequences.

To maintain operational relevance and support preparedness efforts, UACAT conducts a biannual review of these scenarios. This report starts by looking at the political, economic, and regional and international factors that will inform developments in the coming months, starting with the political situation.

"Looking ahead: What changes can aid actors expect in Poland’s humanitarian situation over the next six months? - UACAT Scenario Report

"Looking ahead: How will regional, economic, and political dynamics affect Ukraine's front line and the humanitarian situation over the next six months?" - UACAT Scenario Report