War Spillover into Russian Border Region
Location(s): Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation
Date of event: May 22–24, 2023
What happened: The pro-Ukrainian sabotage group Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, both consisting of ethnic Russians, entered Russia’s Belgorod Oblast by force and took control over several border settlements. Belgorod Oblast borders Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts and Russian-occupied Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainians might potentially orchestrate more sabotage attacks in Russia’s border regions, aiming to trigger Russian troop deployments from current frontline positions in Ukraine to defense positions at their border. In that case, Ukrainian forces would try identifying emerging Russian vulnerabilities in their flanks for large-scale military operations.
Event Details
On May 22, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion units, both consisting of ethnic Russians and former Russian POWs who decided to change sides, disseminated videos through social media showing them crossing the Ukrainian border into Russian territory.
Ukrainian and Russian media reported heavy ground attacks against the Russian border checkpoint in the Grayvoron District of Belgorod Oblast. The Russian Volunteer Corps claimed to gain control over the Kozinka settlement and claimed to advance deep into the oblast.
According to geolocated footage from May 23, the hostilities happened within a radius of 30 km.
Ukraine’s military intelligence justified the Russian Volunteer Corps operation on the territory of Belgorod Oblast by creating a “safe zone” to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian assaults allegedly.
The governor of Belgorod Oblast confirmed the presence of a sabotage group but accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian military intelligence of orchestrating the incident. The Ukrainian government denied direct involvement in the incident, arguing that this is a Russian internal affair.
Analysis
Russian media reported that the pro-Ukrainian militia collided with Russian regular armed forces near Kozinka, Glotovo and Gora-Podol settlements. As of 24 May, the furthest hostilities stretch was located near Grayvoron village—approximately 7 km from the Russian border. Despite limited data about the actual situation on the ground, the current development of actions demonstrates Ukrainian capabilities to conduct military operations on Russian territory.
Attacks on Russia’s Belgorod Oblast and other Russian regions have been frequent since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion and have intensified since April this year. Ukraine seems to have been testing Russian air defense capacities in these regions before these incidents—through attacks with uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), reportedly even with artillery and mortar.
Previously, similar penetration incidents by pro-Ukrainian Russians took place on March 2 and April 6 in the border region of Bryansk. The sabotage groups withdrew after conducting rear operations in the past. Still, they tried to hold territory this time and were much better equipped, using more combat vehicles with heavier artillery and mortar support.
The operation is conducted during daylight. The drone footage was immediately disseminated online to amplify the psychological effect of the assault.
The saboteur’s penetration could be part of a larger Ukrainian strategy, potentially connected to the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, seeking to create a buffer zone for its border settlements in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. These locations are facing an increasing frequency of regular Russian drone and missile strikes. Since late April, INSO recorded a notable spike throughout the last two weeks in May. In that period, the number of attacks was twice as high as in the previous two weeks in April.
The sabotage attack reportedly triggered an evacuation of Russia’s nuclear munition from the Belgorod-22 nuclear weapons storage in the border region. Russian sources did not confirm this.
Impact
The pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups made a limited advance on the ground, potentially leading to notable political impact in Russia internally. The cross-border raids demonstrated Russia’s vulnerabilities and might reinforce Russia’s domestic narratives of defending itself through the invasion against supposedly existential threats to its existence. This might encourage Russian military leadership to brutalize the warfare, resulting in more civilian casualties.
The saboteurs’ penetration could affect international support for Ukraine, as Ukraine’s political leadership has pledged not to use the Western-supplied weapons for attacks against Russian territory.
The Ukrainian side might conduct more sabotage attacks in Russia’s border regions to trigger Russian troop deployments from current frontline positions in Ukraine to defense positions in their border areas. In that case, Ukrainian forces would try identifying emerging Russian vulnerabilities in their flanks for large-scale military operations.
Short-term, this incident will likely inspire Russian forces to a massive retaliation strike against Ukraine. The scale of such an alleged retaliation attack will probably be no less than the mass missile attack against Ukraine on March 9, following the first penetration of pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups into Bryansk Oblast.
If the pro-Ukrainian groups will manage to hold the positions on Russian territory or will be supported by other legions or even Ukrainian Armed Forces, they could expand their control up to the area in the northwest and northeast within the natural obstacles of the Vorskla and Grayvoronka rivers (highlighted in blue on the map below).
Source: @Osinttechnical, May 22, 2023