Kakhovka Dam Disaster
6 Jun 2023
Location(s): Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Region, Southern Ukraine
Date of event: June 6, 2023
What happened: A massive explosion destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson region in the early morning hours, triggering a humanitarian, environmental and economic catastrophe.
Event Details
The dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) was destroyed on the morning of June 6, triggering a large-scale humanitarian and environmental disaster across southern Ukraine. The Plant is located in the currently Russian-held city of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson region. Ukraine and Russia have been accusing each other for months of attacking the dam. In this incident, Ukrainian authorities accuse Russian forces of destroying the dam with pre-installed mines. The dam was mined according to Ukrainian sources soon after Russia took control of it in April 2022, which increases the danger of explosive objects moving across the flooding zone in Kherson region. The HPP was one of the largest Ukrainian energy facilities holding about 18 million cubic meters of water.
Between 80 and 100 settlements in southern Ukraine, including Kherson city, are at high risk of flooding. This threatens the lives of civilians, as well as access to drinking water for hundreds of thousands of people in the area, agricultural production, and the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant – Europe's largest nuclear plant.
The Kakhovka HPP was seized on the very first day of Russian invasion. It serves as a vital water source for the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula.
Humanitarian impact
Kherson region is currently divided between Russian and Ukrainian control. Ukrainian sources estimate that about 16,000 in the area under their control are in the direct disaster area. Russian sources report that about 22,000 residents, in 14 settlements under their control, are currently in the immediate risk zone. However, access to Russian-held areas for international organizations remains restricted and information impossible to independently verify.
Ukraine’s National Police started mass evacuation of the affected population at 6 am. Already at 7:30 multiple settlements of the Beryslav and Kherson district, especially Ostriv microdistrict were completely or partially flooded. Ukrainians are carrying out evacuations from Kherson area first to five temporary relief centers in Kherson Oblast before relocating people to safer locations, such as to Mykolaiv city. From there, people are moving to other safer areas across the country – particularly to the cities of Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, and Kyiv.
Overall, Ukrainian emergency services are currently carrying out evacuations of over 17,000 people, but stress that about 25,000 more should be evacuated from Russian-occupied areas.
Dnipropetrovsk oblast, and especially the cities of Kryviy Rih and Nikopolskiy raion are suffering from water supply disruptions. In currently Russian-held territory, Crimea is likely to be impacted over the long-term by this incident, as this disrupts the main fresh water supply to the peninsula.
Nuclear impact
Ukraine’s state nuclear energy agency Energoatom stated that the explosion endangers safety at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Plant is cooled with water from storage and relies on water from the reservoir to provide power for the turbine condensers of the plant. An absence of cooling water for an extended time can result in fuel melting and the inoperability of the emergency diesel generators. Since the early days of the occupation experts have been warning of the risks of water level drop, which increases the risk of a nuclear accident. However, as of June 6, Ukraine’s Energoatom as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency communicated that there is no immediate threat to the ZNPP.
Environmental and other impact
Environmental specialists are alarmed. Experts estimate that more than 80,000 hectares of natural territory protected by law is destroyed. The sudden release of water can cause erosion and damage to the riverbanks, potentially leading to changes in the river's course. Steppe areas could be washed into the Black Sea and islands flooded. Experts estimate that the water from the reservoir will continue flowing for the next 4 days. Large-scale pollution of the area as well as the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea with hundreds of thousands of tons of sapropel - a toxic bottom sediment that is present in every reservoir – is expected. At least 150 tons of machine oil spilled into the Dnipro River. There is a risk of further leakage of more than 300 tons. More environmental risks emerging from the disaster will become clearer in the coming days, including its impact on other countries of the Black Sea Region.
The destruction is expected to have a severe effect on water supplies across different parts of southern Ukraine. The population in the south of Kherson region and Russian-held Crimea will be left without drinking water, and parts of population centers may be destroyed. In the city of Kryvyi Rih, they are already planning to reduce water consumption at factories and limit its supply to the population. About 70% of the city's water supply depends on the Kakhovka reservoir. In Russian-held territory, the bigger cities of Enerhodar, Melitopol and Berdyansk may face water shortages, though information about their current water supply infrastructure remains limited. INSO indicates that the water supply in Nikopolskyi Raion is also at risk.
Energy facilities in the Kherson region are also at risk of flooding, in particular the Kherson thermal power plant. Almost 12,000 consumers in the city are already without power.
Analysis
In making the case for Russian involvement, observers note that on the eve of the destruction, Russians reportedly raised the water to a record of 17.5 meters prior to the destruction of the dam. If Russian Forces are responsible for the destruction, they might have underestimated the scope of the flooding. The large-scale flooding of the area might provide a possibility for Ukrainian troops to cross the current conflict line deep inside Russian-controlled area, as the water might have effectively neutralized the first line of the Russian defense.
The dam holds back a vast reservoir that supplies water to a host of communities upstream. The destruction of the dam has had several immediate impacts and will have many long-term consequences. Homes, infrastructure, and agricultural lands in the vicinity of the dam are likely to be severely affected, potentially resulting in displacement of local populations and loss of livelihoods, as farmers in the area rely on the water supply. As the affected areas are among the most fertile in Ukraine, the large-scale flooding can have a long-term effect on food security in Ukraine, and due to Ukraine’s global relevance for grain exports, also globally. As an immediate market reaction, wheat prices have risen by 3%.
The release of such a large amount of water into the Dnipro River is likely to cause downstream flooding, impacting towns and cities along the river's path. This can further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and lead to widespread disruption of basic services, such as transportation.
The destruction of Kakhovka HPP is likely to have severe long-term consequences for Ukrainian agriculture and water supply systems. A system of irrigation channels connected to the Kakhovka reservoir was supplying Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and north Crimea flat lands, turning them into some of the most fertile areas in the country. The reservoir also contributed to Mykolaiv city's drinking water.
As there is still some uncertainty around the final destinations of those likely to remain displaced for an extended period, humanitarian actors should coordinate closely with government officials to prepare for the possibility of quick influxes of displaced in some areas – particularly in southern Ukraine, such as in Mykolaiv and Odesa regions