UACAT provides short overviews of an onset events, analyzing its immediate impacts on the humanitarian and development communities in Ukraine and neighboring countries, while also forecasting potential trends and medium to long term consequences.
Over the last five weeks, Russian forces have launched six attacks on cargo vessels moored in Odesa-area ports and in the Black Sea, resulting in numerous casualties. The attacks have already caused war insurance premiums to rise for vessels transporting grain and other goods from Ukraine. Should the Russian authorities continue this tactic, the implications for the Ukrainian economy, particularly the agriculture sector, could be significant, increasing Ukraine’s dependence on more expensive and potentially politically contentious trade routes overland and via Danube ports.
On August 18, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus would deploy approximately 20,000 troops, or roughly a third of its army, near the Ukrainian border. He stated that this was in response to the buildup of Ukrainian troops. Even if the Ukrainian leadership does not fully believe that Belarus will mount a full incursion, they are obliged to allocate resources to strengthen that border, something they are indeed already doing.
In the early morning hours of June 6, 2023, a massive explosion destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast, triggering a humanitarian, environmental and economic catastrophe.
